October 9, 2020
Regardless of what form it takes in your neck of the woods, Halloween will be celebrated – as it always is – on the last day of October. What follows, year in and year out, is a slowdown in the real estate market. This slowdown is slightly less than a 10% drop in a non-election year, and it increases to a 15% drop in an election year. Why? Probably because many homebuyers get paralyzed with uncertainty before an election.
My question is, will the same pattern occur this year?
A contentious election and a worldwide pandemic on the one hand – and the lowest interest rates in history coupled with a serious need for “home” on the other – puts a bit of a twist on things.
It will be interesting, to say the least. And savvy buyers should be on the lookout for increased inventory and more competitive pricing as this year’s hot market cools off.
No matter what the short-term impact is on the real estate market in any normal election year, it does bounce back and make up for that dip. In a study done by Meyers Research & Zonda, Chief Economist Ali Wolf agrees that purchases are simply delayed until after the election:
“History suggests that the slowdown is largely concentrated in the month of November. In fact, the year after a presidential election is the best of the four-year cycle. This suggests that demand for new housing is not lost because of election uncertainty, rather it gets pushed out to the following year.”
Good news! Fear not! Even if we do slow down this November, we should come roaring back in 2021.
Yup, that’s the “Treat” I’m hoping for – a better 2021 in every way possible.